As the trial begins!

Then that starts the trial of Donald Trump the Senate, the chances of removal are slim, as is the total relief that he covets.

The process ofimpeachment was completed yesterday with the election of prosecutors, the signing of the articles of impeachment by Nancy Pelosi and the delivery of formal articles to the Senate. The outcome of the trial is little doubt, because a two-thirds vote for the removal remains extraordinarily unlikely, aim stis political impact remains uncertain and will largely depend on the rules of the game that the senators will have to adopt to the majority.

The trial will take place

The president has often said that he wanted to be a rejection of the trial, since he considered that his actions in the folder Ukrainian were ” perfect “. However, it has not convinced all of the republican senators.

Therefore, there will be a trial, but in what form ? The process will be-the frimé gold give it really a chance for Senators and the public to consider all the evidence ?

Key witnesses who have not testified before the Chamber, as the national security adviser, John Bolton, or the chief of staff of the White House, Mick Mulvaney, could appear. Same thing for Lev Parnas, who has acted as intermediary in the case and has already provided documents implicating the president.

A trial Potemkin ?

The preference of the leader republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, would go to trial without new evidence, where we hear that the presentations of the prosecution and the defence then put to the vote without drum gold trumpet.

The option of a trial which would only be a facade, however, seems reasonable to conclude that, because some republicans don’t want to give a free pass to the president. Others even believe that the call of witnesses, as Joe and Hunter Biden could be an opportunity to score points at the expense of the democrats.

The constitution of the list of witnesses will therefore be a year of high-flying policy, as every step must be approved by a majority and the republican leaders are determined not to lose control of the process.

It will, but how ?

Of course, as he has been able to do in his private life for a multitude of accusations of fraud and bankruptcy — not to mention the complaints against him ranging from sexual harassment to rape — Donald Trump will avoid likely impeachment.

The influence he exerts on his party is such that the probability that twenty republican senators can judge that the abuse of power and acts of obstruction evident reproach to the president are subject to impeachment, a priori, is infinitesimal.

The real challenge for democrats, therefore, is to expose the facts convincingly enough for people to wear themselves this judgment, ideally with the help of a few republicans against the current of their party. This is probably what will happen if the new witnesses and documents requested by the democrats are to be admitted at trial.

The determination of The rules of the trial will therefore be a crucial step. If a handful of republican senators standing up and opening the door to a trial in good and due form, this will probably not be enough to lead to a two-thirds vote for impeachment, but it may be enough to make the difference in November.